2024
Falconstar Q1-2024 Private Wealth Advisory Report
Dear Investors,
As the saying goes - time flies when markets are rising, Q1 2024 is off to a breeze start with SP500 , Nasdaq up 10% and NIFTY 500 up 4.75% YTD. As 2024 election year for worldwide democracies and upcoming India Election in May24 + US Election in Nov24, the consensus is that we can expect hyperinflation and continued bullishness in Markets.
Equity In India the 8% + Yields on Corporate Bonds offer good opportunity to park funds in Debt / FDs as Market NIFTY 500 valuations continue to stretch at 25x P/E with no correction in sight.
UK officially entered recession in Q1 2024 but UAE is expecting 4-5% real GDP growth suggesting the markets decoupling unless there is a worldwide event like Covid or geopolitical breakdown.
Attached herewith is the Wealth Report where discipline, asset allocation % and introduction to Value / Momentum Enhanced Index products are suggested for Investors.
View complete pdf :Falconstar Q1-2024 Private Wealth Advisory Report
Falconstar Q1-2024 Global & India Equity Report
Dear Investors,
By every valuation metrics like PE, PB the Nifty 50, Large cap proxy of India & Nasdaq / S&P of US are trading 2-std dev above their 15 year averages. While this unprecedented rally of past 36 months can sustain on back of strong IMF real GDP growth % of 2.9% in US & 6.8% in India, the election results in 2nd half of 2024 can cause the markets to lose interest. Additionally, a HOLD in Equities is suggested on back of spill over of Israel Iran conflict.
UAE equity continues to be an undiscovered asset class with < 10 PE, PB & > 5% dividend yields.
Historically, election year has generated +ve returns & there is only reason to see a correction in 2025.
Watch out for participation froth, valuation froth & bad news.
Delighted to share the Falconstar Quarterly Portfolio Research Report Q1 2024.
View complete pdf :Falconstar Q1-2024 Global & India Equity Report
Falconstar Q2-2024 Private Wealth Advisory Report
Dear Investors,
Q2 2024 saw a major Election event in the world's largest democracy. Contrary to the opinion that BJP will emerge as a single largest party with 300+ seats, it secured less than 272 seats & managed to form a Government with the help of regional allies in Telangana and Bihar.
The Markets were expected to be bearish if BJP did not secure a majority, but eventually Markets shrugged off the pessimism with BJP forming a Government and adding another 5 years of visibility under PM Modi. 5 years back there were talks about Sensex hitting 100K by 2030 but today at 80K Sensex does not look that far!
With NIFTY50 being outperformed by NIFTY500 and NIFTYMID50 in past 1,3, 5, 10 years CAGR% returns, it is evident that under BJP rule for next foreseeable future, the Investors will have to broaden their horizons to 500 Nifty firms bcoz small-caps will see their fortunes rising faster as India becomes #3 World Economy.
With the US Fed indicating that Inflation is nearing a point where there could be rate cuts, it makes sense for Indian Investors to also allocate 30-50% to Fixed Income asset class (through FD, Bonds, BAF). Similarly, for Senior citizens it makes 100% sense to Hold their Equity MFs under IDCW Dividend Plan % as Profits can vanish like a Thief.
UK election results were predictable after 16 years the Conservative party lost to the Labour Party - however, the UK's systemic problems will surface in the next 5 years and challenges with Pension Funds / Socialistic schemes will be challenged. Similarly, for 2024 with US elections in the pipeline, it is unlikely that Markets will face deep correction.
Investors are requested to stay invested & enjoy the ride as the best way to counter Inflation % in our life is to participate in the Markets.
View complete pdf :Falconstar Q2-2024 Private Wealth Advisory Report
Falconstar Q3-2024 Private Wealth Advisory Report
Dear Investors,
Greetings Q3 2024. Gradual deterioration in middle-east geo-politics and US Fed rate cut of 50 bps were the primary themes for this quarter. With 22% YTD returns in Nasdaq100 , the past quarter was uneventful in % equity movements. On the Fixed Income side there has been 75 bps rally in US Treasury YTD and hence Balance Advantage (BAF) has performed well.
As Q4 2024 brings an end to the year with US election results and another round of 25-50 bps rate cuts, Dividend (IDCW) plans in Fortune 500 Multi-cap themes and BAF are recommended in India. In UAE Equity continues to be an undiscovered asset class which is giving 10% + $ returns.
View complete pdf :Falconstar Q3-2024 Private Wealth Advisory Report