Falconstar Q1-2022 Private Wealth Advisory Report

Dear Investors,
CY Q1 2022 has started with a geo-political crisis emerging out of Russia-Ukarine conflict with all NATO and Western nations inflicting sanctions on Russia. As the situation unfolds it is very clear that the chasm of this conflict will have long-standing effects in coming 10 years.

The NIFTY50 is down (-1.16% ) while NIFTY Metal Index is up (+17.72%) YTD and globally Nasdaq is (-10.59% ) down YTD. As Indian markets brace up for > $120 per barrel crude and inflationary pressure, the question of RBI repo rate hike from 4% is impending.During Q4 2021 Falconstar has cautioned investors to adopt a Balance Funds (BAF) approach for Systematic Investments due to expensive Index valuations > 20 P/E and 18 month long bull run since Mar-2020. However, in Q1 2022 the Markets provided opportunity to initiate SIPs into select Multi-cap MFs with 12 month horizon. Falconstar has constantly communicated with Investors with > 5 year horizon to double up on their SIPs during Jan-Feb-March 22 down months.

In terms of Global Investing for the Indian investor, Falconstar offers it's Global Equity portfolio through NYC brokerage a/c, Structured Notes platform and also broad-based ( Nasdaq100 + EAFE ex-US 100) ETFs .

Delighted to share the Falconstar Quarterly Wealth Report Q1 2022.

View complete pdf :Falconstar Q1-2022 Private Wealth Advisory Report

Falconstar Q1-2022 Global & India Equity Report

Dear Investors,
Q1 CY 2022 started with a geo-political conflict in Russia-Ukraine region which has slowly and surely seen involvement of all major global powers like US, UK and NATO nations. It appears that what was once looked upon as a 10-day war is now going to be an ongoing battle for 12 months to say the least. The Financial Markets are grinding sideways due to the uncertainty around further spread of the conflict between Russia and NATO, higher Energy prices and hurting economic growth. The US Tech heavy Nasdaq is down 18% YTD 2022 and India NIFTY50 is flat at -0.4% during the same timeframe. IMF also reduced Global and Indian GDP growth forecasts by 0.2% and 0.8% due to Russia-NATO standoff.

With Vanguard VT world Index down > 12% YTD, the GEAR and GARP Portfolios have correspondingly suffered mark-to-market loss in same range. GARP portfolio clocked an XIRR% of 14% down from 20% in the previous quarter. With contradictory signals on one hand of declining GDP growth and earnings downgrades combined with expectation of rate hike due to inflationary pressures, the Markets could face headwinds of another 10% downside. However, GEAR and GARP are prepared to deploy cash on technically weak market indicators because Falconstar believes that abundant liquidity & accommodative monetary policy of Fed and CBs will support the markets. It continues to be a ‘buy on dips’ market although there is increased risk of extended geo-political conflict in next 5 years. The outcome of the current “democracy vs other” conflict has much deeper implications beyond 2022. We could see emergence of alliances, trading blocks, block chains and currency as an outcome of this conflict in next 5 years.

Delighted to share the Falconstar Quarterly Portfolio Research Report Q1 2022.

View complete pdf :Falconstar Q1-2022 Global & India Equity Report

Falconstar Q2-2022 Private Wealth Advisory Report

Dear Investors,
CY 2022 saw S&P 500 fall by 19.55% and Nasdaq correct by whopping 28.55%. Comparitively NIFTY is down by meagre 8.95% & INR has depreciated by ~7% (Total 16%) . FII selling is estimated ~$30 Bn+ or Rs. 2.50 Lac cr. The Retail Indian Investor has held up the Equity Markets due to their SIPs.

However, it is worth noting that in June-22 the SIPs weakened, which signal a fatiguing Retail Investor. While FIIs have not even sold 5% of their Investments in India, if there is a 2nd round of Sell-off, we cannot rule out break-down of the Indian retail investor.

With expected Rate hikes in US led by inflation figures of 8-9%, India will follow suit global markets albiet to lesser extent. There are 3 levels of Investment program which are suggested given the way markets are expected to behave in 2022-23 :

1. SIP investing - Invest consistently for next 24 months with small amounts based on liquidity availability.

2. SIP Top-up - During months Markets correct > 2% double up on Investment amount with 3 year horizon

3. Program Investing - During Days Markets correct > 2% systematically Invest 5% liquid capital in Markets online with Falconstar ⭐

Although there is no guarantee that Markets might correct further, there are -ve developments in Crude prices $ , Taiwan / Kashmir related geo-politics which might see further sell-off.

On the other hand, Markets can rally and touch New highs in next 6-12 months in absence of -ve news flows.Stay tuned and stay connected with Falconstar Investments for Investment opportunities.

Delighted to share the Falconstar Quarterly Wealth Report Q2 2022.

View complete pdf :Falconstar Q2-2022 Private Wealth Advisory Report

Falconstar Q2-2022 Global & India Equity Report

Dear Investors,
CY 2022 saw S&P 500 fall by 19.55% and Nasdaq correct by whopping 28.55%. Comparitively NIFTY is down by meagre 8.95% & INR has depreciated by ~7% (Total 16%) . FII selling is estimated ~$30 Bn+ or Rs. 2.50 Lac cr. The Retail Indian Investor has held up the Equity Markets due to their SIPs.

However, it is worth noting that in June-22 the SIPs weakened, which signal a fatiguing Retail Investor. While FIIs have not even sold 5% of their Investments in India, if there is a 2nd round of Sell-off, we cannot rule out break-down of the Indian retail investor.

With expected Rate hikes in US led by inflation figures of 8-9%, India will follow suit global markets albiet to lesser extent. There are 3 levels of Investment program which are suggested given the way markets are expected to behave in 2022-23 :

1. SIP investing - Invest consistently for next 24 months with small amounts based on liquidity availability.

2. SIP Top-up - During months Markets correct > 2% double up on Investment amount with 3 year horizon.

3. Program Investing - During Days Markets correct > 2% systematically Invest 5% liquid capital in Markets online with Falconstar ⭐

Although there is no guarantee that Markets might correct further, there are -ve developments in Crude prices $ , Taiwan / Kashmir related geo-politics which might see further sell-off.

Delighted to share the Falconstar Quarterly Wealth Report Q2 2022.

View complete pdf :Falconstar Q2-2022 Global & India Equity Report

Falconstar Q3-2022 Private Wealth Advisory Report

Dear Investors,
Since Mar-22 US Fed started raising rates from 0.25% to 3% in Sept-22. Similarly Indian RBI has followed global markets with rate hikes from 4% to 6%. Looking at current Market levels of NIFTY @ ~17000 and P/E @ ~20, Nasdaq @ ~11000 and P/E @ ~22, Markets are clearly not in over-valued zone like 2000 or 2008. However, they are also not in 'value' zone. India promises to be an outperforming economy under stable political leadership and hence 'Buy on Dips' along with SIP continues to be a the only viable option.

With expected US Fed rates @ 4-5% and RBI rate @ 7% buying at corrected prices will actually be beneficials for Investors with 3 years horizon. Parents with children having 10 years + horizon towards Education Planning can consider investing in 10 year SIP into Nasdaq / S&P500 USD$ funds as US loses its global currency status and might provide 'value opportunity' in 3 years.
 

Delighted to share the Falconstar Quarterly Wealth Report Q3 2022.

View complete pdf :Falconstar Q3-2022 Private Wealth Advisory Report

Falconstar Q4-2022 Private Wealth Advisory Report

Dear Investors,
As 2022 draws to a grinding halt, it has been a gradual negative churn in the markets with Russia-Ukraine geo-political turmoil , rising Oil > $120/- per barrel and lingering Covid variant concerns.

Tech led Nasdaq down -32%, S&P down -19% and corresponding India NIFTY 50 down -6% in $ terms shows how RBI  rates hike from 4% to 6.25% in 2022 did put brakes on a rallying market sentiment. The valuations of S&P at ~ 20 and NIFTY at ~21 are definitely above avg expensive but not in bubble territory reminiscent of 1993, 1999 , 2007.

For Indian Investors in 2023 there are few events to watch out for & hence a "Balanced Advantage" aka Conservative approach is better to take advantage of higher Interest rates for Investing. Following events are likely to unfold in 2023-24 : 1. ) Globally Europe , Developing nations would have sovereign default cases while US largely evades the "hurricane" of recession. This will definitely impact Indian IT , Auto Comp export led sectors and hence SIP into IT and Nasdaq sector funds for 24 months is an option for the adventurous investor. 2. ) US fed rates will be hiked another 50-100 bps along with Indian RBI raising them by same amount hence Fixed Income / Debt Funds deserve 20-30% more allocation over next 12-18 months. 3.) India to have election in 2024 and neighbouring geo-politics will prove to be the tipping point if India is able to prove its mettle in a stress test. Buy on Dip for risky assets like Equity is the approach here. Overall India under a strong political leadership stands tall amongst Equity market peers but it's situation is like "Anarkali" of Mughleazam - Salim's love will not let you die & Akbar's disdain will not let you live. Happy Investing & HNY 2023.
 

Delighted to share the Falconstar Quarterly Wealth Report Q4 2022.

View complete pdf :Falconstar Q4-2022 Private Wealth Advisory Report

Falconstar Q4-2022 Global & India Equity Report

Dear Investors,
As 2023 has commenced on a cautious note with looming Euro recession & IMF forecasts for India pegged at a 6.1% GDP growth, it is time to look at Market correction of 10% in S&P500 and Nasdaq100 as buying opportunities for a *reflex rally in 2023.

Indian markets continue to be traded at above 10 year avg P/E , P/B valuations, the Golden decade of India has commenced but Corporate earnings of Top#500 companies will have to justify the valuations premium in 2023.

With an expected 15-18% Nifty earnings growth the Nifty @ 18K does not have much fundamental legs for a rally. However, if we go by past experience of 1993, 1999 or 2007 it is imperative for a speculative valuations rally before a true correction Hence we cannot rule out a runaway rally to 21-25K Nifty before 2024 Indian elections. Either before or after 2024 elections, Indian markets will rally or correct.

Falconstar GEAR is positioned to BUY Nasdaq & SP500 ETFs if opportunity arises over next 12 months. Falconstar GARP also targets 15% XIRR with its' Top-down QFT framework. Will keep posted on quarterly updates in 2023.
 

Delighted to share the Falconstar Quarterly Portfolio Research Report Q4 2022.

View complete pdf :Falconstar Q4-2022 Global & India Equity Report