Falconstar Q2-2021 Global & India Equity Report

Dear Investors,
Greetings Q2 2021 & Best wishes for your jovial spirits as the Markets seem unstoppable past 15 months. India & Global Equities continue their Bull run unabated by Covid pandemic 2nd wave, US presidential elections or Geo-political events.

With NIFTY 50 and S&P up in double digits YTD 2021, the GARP and GEAR Portfolios are both Alpha+ with returns of 15+% and 13+% . It is worth noting that GEAR portfolio holds 20% cash levels.

The present times a reminiscent of 1999-2000 E-commerce bubble when we saw Pets.com & 10s of other such IPOs in US at absurd valuations with "click to eye balls" valuations metrics and -ve Cash Flows. The Zomato IPO & other "Digital" IPOs in India smell the same breed with no real earnings model.

The current Bull run is backed by Central Bank's Liquidity printing $ Globally & hence more potent , more enduring and more dangerous than the 2000-2001 or 2008-2009 Market corrections.

With Dubai Real Estate markets surging 30-40% in 12 months, it is a testament that we are entering Inflationary stage. There is no other choice but to hold on the Inflated assets whether it is Equities, Real estate & balancing it with Fixed Income & Gold. In line with Warren Buffett’s thoughts, it is time to be cautious because markets are greedy !

Delighted to share the Falconstar Quarterly Portfolio Research Report Q2 2021.

View complete pdf :Falconstar Q2-2021 Global & India Equity Report

Falconstar Q3-2021 Private Wealth Advisory Report

Dear Investors,
With Sensex @ 60K in Q3 2021, it has been a milestone many would not have dreamed of 2 years back. The Markets in India are pricing 2 years forward earnings in NIFTY 50 which is trading at 23-24 Price / Earnings and India's Marketcap / GDP ratio stands at a fearful 180%+. While there is no doubt about India' long-term Bull story being intact and fact that India needs a 10 year super-run of 10%+ GDP growth to be a realized economic power, the current valuations are frothy on back on Central Bank's (India & Global) liquidity rush.

The current Indian Debt Markets also don't provide much opportunities with AAA Corporate Bond Funds YTM ~5.5-6%. For the growth oriented Investor who has a 20 year run-way for wealth creation, the best option is to continue SIP into Global Markets (preferably Nasdaq or Global 500) & Indian Equities (thematic, Top 100, oth select ) at a measured pace with 20% cash to plough in if there is a 10-15% meaningful correction. Nonetheless past 25 year data suggests that for a > 3 year horizon there is a 80% probability of +ve returns so SIP is the best route for wealth creation.

Please find attached Falconstar Investments Wealth Report Q3 2021 with myriad of Investment opportunities based on Investor's circumstances and profile. Please contact us for a exploratory discussion on identifying the right opportunities for your case.

Delighted to share the Falconstar Quarterly Wealth Report Q3 2021.

View complete pdf :Falconstar Q3-2021 Private Wealth Advisory Report

Falconstar Q3-2021 Global & India Equity Report

Dear Investors,
As CY 2021 draws closer to an end, it has been quite a stock market journey from the Sensex lows of covid wave 1 in march 2020 to resilience of Sensex covid wave 2 in march 2021 (Low of 27k to High of 62k) . Indian markets are emulating global markets (Nasdaq 7k to 15k) albiet with more volatlity.

We are pleased with Falconstar starategy of focusing within the Top 200 quality names & generating Alpha (20%+) while maintaining safety levels conviction to buy during distress conditions.

The Global multi asset portfolio continues to out-perform in spite of 20% cash, China etf & allocation to Gold. Bitcoin is the joker in the Pack which has not yet been inducted into the GEAR due to lack of underlying fundamentals and platform.
Pls find attached Falconstar GEAR & GARP Q3 2021 Portfolio (Draft) updates for your perusal.

Delighted to share the Falconstar Quarterly Portfolio Research Report Q3 2021.

View complete pdf :Falconstar Q3-2021 Global & India Equity Report

Falconstar Q4-2021 Private Wealth Advisory Report

Dear Investors,
As market wraps up CY 2021 , it is not possible to de-couple events of 2020 and 2021 with the 1st wave of covid sweeping in mar-20 & 2nd wave in april-21. While the pictures of the blazing funeral pyres in India in April-21 are fresh in our memories, the Markets somewhat surprised on the upside by ignoring the 400K death toll in wave 2 compared to 300K toll in wave 1 in India.

The fact that NIFTY 50 EPS growth in 2021 has been a staggerring ~100% YoY , it reasonably justifies the 24% returns YoY. It also means that most of the recovery in Nifty happened in 2020 while most of the recovery in earnings happened in 2021. Overall, in Nov-21 , Indian markets have given a bearish technical signal after 18 months so the pockets of opportunities exist for SIP investors in BAF (Balanced funds) while on days when markets correct for > 1.5% DEMAT purchases can be executed on limit orders with a 3 year horizon.

Globally, if 2022 is the year of Tapering in US, we can expect buying opportunities in Nasdaq100 and EAFE100 ex-US. Past 20 years data shows that Nasdaq100 Earning grew 19X while S&P500 grew 4X. We continue to favour Individual Investors to follow SIP route into these Top 200 global names with a 5 year plan and ~10 % allocation. For Income oriented $ USD Investors there vialble options in form of Structured notes .

Please find attached Q4 Wealth Report 2021 as we prepare for a zigzag 2022. It is time to double up on SIPs if markets correct. There is a 80% probability of bumper profit by buying on > 15% correction distressed dips.

Delighted to share the Falconstar Quarterly Wealth Report Q4 2021.

View complete pdf :Falconstar Q4-2021 Private Wealth Advisory Report

Falconstar Q4-2021 Global & India Equity Report

Dear Investors,
2021 for Indian markets was bouyant with a 24% rise in NIFTY 50 compared to 14% during 2020. Correspondingly the NIFTY 50 EPS in 2021 increased by 100% and declined by 15% in 2020. The real GDP growth of 9.2% in 2021 supported the buoyant markets along with a stable currency in Rs. 72-74 range. However, it must be noted that 2021 was a year of NIFTY500 as Midcap 100 posted 46% and Smallcap 250 clocked 62% returns.

Multi-cap Falconstar GARP model portfolio clocked 21% XIRR while maintaining a 0.8 Beta risk profile. Going into 2023 GARP will look for opportunities to buy on dips if US Tapering creates volatility as lower Interest rates in India with 1 yr T-bill at 4.6% bodes well for earnings growth. GARP> will continue to fine tune its holdings on 50 stocks which benefit from India's structural growth.

Globally, the effects of Central Bank liquidity at 0.25% has played out well during Covid-pandemic with Nasdaq posting 13% returns in 2021 and stellar 47% returns in 2020. On the other hand, Chinese LargeCap ETFs are trading in < 10 P/E valuations which shows the stark differences between 'Developed' markets and China which is not yet accepted as a globally attractive Investment\ destination. This is despite China contributing > 150 companies to Global Fortune 500.

Falconstar GEAR has posted a 30% CAGR since inception and is a multi-asset global portfolio with 40% weightage to US Big Tech. As markets scale new highs and valuations concerns are rising, GEAR will continue to accumulate US Tech on dips along with exploring opportunities in Income growth oriented Real Estate in 3-4% inflationary environment worldwide.

Entering 2022 we can expect that even if there are 2-3 rate hikes in US the global markets will remain buoyant unless there is a sovereign default or geo-political crisis. The current 3rd wave of Covid is expected to be worse than the 2nd wave but Markets seem to be immune to the same. It will be an unexpected crisis which will play spoiler to the rally. Best way is to continue to remain invested in Earnings growth stocks along with cash $ under the mattress for opportunistic deployment.

Happy Investing and Best wishes for 2022.

Delighted to share the Falconstar Quarterly Portfolio Research Report Q4 2021.

View complete pdf :Falconstar Q4-2021 Global & India Equity Report